UC Berkeley’s Borenstein Warns California Refinery Closures Could Trigger Gas Shortages

Severin Borenstein, a longtime energy expert and professor at the University of California, Berkeley, is again warning that California’s approach to refining and energy policy is setting the state up for gasoline shortages and soaring prices.

“These two latest refinery closures would reduce the total production in California faster than in-state consumption will plausibly decline,” Borenstein cautioned. “The result would be a severe gasoline shortage and likely an unprecedented price increase.”

The state’s unique challenges, including strict environmental regulations, geographic isolation, and a lack of pipeline connectivity, make it heavily reliant on in-state refining. The Energy Information Administration echoes Borenstein’s concerns, noting that California’s refining shortfall cannot easily be filled by domestic supply and will likely require increased fuel imports, especially from Asia.

In 2024, over 78 percent of California’s crude supply was imported, with Iraq leading the list. Increasing reliance on imported oil raises not only energy security risks but also environmental concerns.

Borenstein emphasizes that if policymakers don’t act quickly, Californians could face record-breaking fuel prices.