Berkeley, USC Experts Warn SB 237 Alone Won’t Stabilize California’s Fuel System

A new analysis highlighted by Extracting Fact underscores a reality Sacramento keeps trying to wish away: SB 237 was a meaningful step, but it is not big enough to stabilize California’s crude supply chain, the pipelines and refineries that keep transportation fuels flowing. The piece cites research by Joseph B. Silvi and James W. Rector (UC Berkeley) and Michael A. Mische (USC) concluding SB 237 is “well-intentioned” but “likely not sufficient” to prevent the kind of infrastructure instability that leads to refinery and pipeline closures.

Rector and Mische are both participating in CIPA’s Legislative Advocacy Day this week in Sacramento and will be presenting their findings to legislators. 

The experts start with the inconvenient baseline: California still consumes massive volumes of crude-derived products, not just gasoline and diesel, but also critical inputs like asphalt. Demand has only declined modestly over the last two decades (averaging less than 1% per year). In other words, California’s consumption curve is not falling fast enough to match the state’s policy-driven production collapse.

They also point to a clear stabilization benchmark: the California Energy Commission’s identified minimum production level of approximately 343,000 barrels per day needed to keep petroleum infrastructure stable. The analysis notes California was around 285,000 barrels per day as of August 2025, already below the stated floor, meaning the system is operating with less margin for error, higher cost pressure, and greater exposure to supply shocks.

Most importantly for policymakers, the math doesn’t pencil out: even if Kern County drilling under SB 237 adds roughly 10,125 barrels per day per year through 2030, the state is still declining by about 18,000 barrels per day per year, so production continues to slide even with SB 237 fully utilized. The authors’ conclusion is blunt: stabilization requires additional in-state production outside Kern County, paired with a return to historical CalGEM procedures that allow routine well work to proceed predictably. That combination, they argue, can support reliability and affordability while reducing reliance on “highly pollutive” foreign imports.

Bottom line: SB 237 is a bandage on a severed artery, helpful, necessary, but not enough by itself. If California wants to avoid deeper refinery attrition, higher price volatility, and an even bigger shift to imported finished fuels, the policy response must match the scale of the decline: broaden in-state production pathways, restore predictable permitting and operations rules, and prioritize reliability for consumers, businesses, and critical state and federal operations that depend on California-compliant fuels.