California’s Updated 2024 Energy Policy Roadmap Puts Fossil Fuels on Notice, Again

The California Energy Commission (CEC) has quietly released its updated 2024 Integrated Energy Policy Report (IEPR) Update Scoping Order, and buried in the bureaucratic language is a clear message for California’s oil producers: the state’s long-term energy planning framework continues to lean heavily toward a fossil-free future, leaving little room for petroleum as part of California’s energy mix.

The report, led by CEC Chair David Hochschild and Vice Chair Siva Gunda, originally published last year sets the tone for what state regulators will analyze, promote, and ultimately legislate around energy policy. Though its public-facing theme is focused on updating electricity demand forecasts and exploring new frontiers like wave and tidal energy, the IEPR process shapes how policymakers think about all forms of energy, including the ones that still power ninety-seven percent of California’s economy.

Why Oil Producers Should Pay Attention

Every two years, the IEPR guides California’s energy priorities across agencies: the Air Resources Board (CARB), Public Utilities Commission (CPUC), State Water Board, Department of Conservation, and the governor’s office. What appears as a routine “update” can determine future permitting timelines, investment signals, and even the tone of legislative hearings.

For CIPA members, this report matters because it drives:

• Budget allocations that prioritize renewable subsidies over infrastructure for in-state oil and gas.

• Data forecasts that inform how much fossil energy the state plans to use or phase out by decade’s end.

• Policy assumptions that underpin rules affecting refineries, pipelines, and upstream production.

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The document anchors its framework to California’s suite of “net-zero” and “zero-carbon” laws, including:

• SB 1279 (Muratsuchi, 2022) requires net-zero GHG emissions statewide by 2045.

• SB 1020 (Laird, 2022) mandates ninety percent renewable or zero-carbon electricity by 2035.

• SB 100 (De León, 2018) locks in one hundred percent zero-carbon electricity by 2045.

• SB 350 (De León, 2015) doubles energy efficiency requirements, expands renewables.

• SB 32 (Pavley, 2016) cuts emissions 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030.
  

Each of these measures limits the future role of oil and gas under the guise of “clean energy transition.”

A Narrow Energy Lens

The 2024 IEPR identifies only two key technical subjects for the coming year:

1. An electricity demand forecast update, and

2. An evaluation of wave and tidal energy potential under SB 605 (Padilla, 2023).

Noticeably absent: any detailed review of petroleum, natural gas, or refinery capacity planning, something that must be corrected in the next version.

Yet the CEC’s legislative authority under Public Resources Code 25301(a) explicitly requires assessment of “all aspects of energy industry supply, production, transportation, delivery and distribution.” Historically, that has included oil and gas. The omission underscores how fossil energy is being written out of the state’s own analytical framework, even though California still relies on it to move goods, power industry, and fuel 30 million cars.

Signals Between the Lines

While not mentioned by name, the report’s focus areas point to a deeper agenda:

• Electric demand growth forecasts are tied to electrification mandates, vehicles, appliances, and buildings, which will raise total energy consumption even as fossil generation declines.

• Wave and tidal energy studies act as placeholders for broader offshore renewable development, including floating wind. Both carry significant permitting, transmission, and ratepayer cost implications.

• Transmission planning requirements under SB 887 (Becker, 2022) signal billions in new infrastructure spending, all designed to move renewable power across the grid rather than maintain local production stability.
  

For CIPA producers, this means the state’s long-term planning documents increasingly assume a shrinking role for in-state petroleum, with no acknowledgment of how foreign crude imports, refinery closures, or price volatility might impact Californians.

A Seat at the Table or on the Menu

The IEPR process is not purely academic. Each topic in the scoping order triggers a year-long series of public workshops, open forums where the CEC collects data, and builds the record it later uses to guide regulation and legislation. CIPA and its members have a vital opportunity and responsibility to engage in these proceedings.

Participation matters because:

• Forecast data drives climate policy. If the state’s demand forecast assumes unrealistic electrification or underestimates fuel demand, future policies will be based on flawed assumptions.

• Fossil energy remains the backbone of affordability, reliability, and emergency readiness. Without input from producers, state forecasts will continue to ignore the operational realities that keep California functioning.

• Tribal and environmental consultations are now explicitly included in the process, but no equivalent consultation exists for the industries that actually produce energy. That imbalance must be addressed.
  

Bottom Line

The 2024 IEPR Update Scoping Order is more than a procedural notice; it is a roadmap for how the Newsom administration intends to steer California’s energy priorities. The absence of any meaningful reference to oil, gas, or refinery infrastructure makes it clear that fossil energy continues to be treated as an afterthought in state planning.

For CIPA members, the message is simple: if producers are not at the IEPR table, they will be on the menu.