California has set an ambitious goal of having all new cars and passenger trucks sold in California be zero-emission vehicles by 2035. The Biden-Harris administration has also championed a future where electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable energy dominate the market. However, ExxonMobil's annual energy outlook suggests that we may not be on track to meet these goals. Exxon projects that oil and natural gas will remain top energy sources well into 2050.
ExxonMobil made a bold statement: ‘By 2050, humans will still be using about the same amount of crude oil as we do today.’
The Exxon announcement also stated that renewables such as solar and wind will grow, and oil and gas are expected to remain dominant. The report notes that while we might see significant changes in how we use oil, such as less fuel for passenger cars and more for chemical production, oil and gas will continue to be critical energy sources.
Exxon also predicts that natural gas demand will increase by 21% by 2050, largely driven by industrial sectors that rely on it for manufacturing and chemical production. Meanwhile, demand for biofuels, solar, and wind energy will rise, but these alternatives will not replace oil and gas on the scale some policymakers envision.
These findings show that politicians and their regulators must be realistic about the foreseeable future of our oil and gas industry.
One of the major oversights in the current debate around phasing out oil and gas is the misunderstanding that petroleum is used only for fuel. In reality, petroleum is a critical ingredient in over 6,000 everyday products we rely on. These include:
Plastics: From packaging to medical equipment, plastic is everywhere.
Fertilizers: Essential for modern agriculture, petroleum-based fertilizers help feed the world.
Clothing: Synthetic fibers like polyester and nylon, used in a wide variety of clothing, are made from petroleum.
Electronics: Many electronic devices, including smartphones and computers, rely on petroleum-based components.
Given the vast number of products that depend on petroleum, it’s clear that reducing our reliance on oil isn’t as simple as switching to electric cars. Our elected officials need to recognize that the petroleum industry supports more than just the energy sector; it is the foundation of modern society.
The transition to a greener future must be rooted in realism. We need oil and gas, not just for energy but for many aspects of modern life. The sooner we acknowledge this, the sooner we can craft policies that support the environment and address society's practical needs.